On the page of every IFBB Pro show of 2026, every woman in the field now has a podium chance: her chance of finishing in the top three, worked out from one thing only — her placings at professional shows before that show. Next to it, what actually happened. Favourites who delivered, outsiders who won, at a glance.
How it works
Every athlete gets a strength, learned from who she has beaten and who has beaten her, in the same division. Recent shows count more than old ones; amateur results are left out, because beating amateurs says little about a pro line-up. A show is then read from the top: first place goes to each athlete in proportion to her strength, second place the same among those left, and so on. This is the Plackett-Luce model, the standard model for rankings. The full method is on the methodology page.
What it cannot see: her condition on the day, the judges on the panel, a change of division, an injury. It is what the record says, not a judgement of the show.
We tested it before showing it
Nothing goes on the site until it has been tested. We replayed the 2025 season as if it had not happened: before each month, the model learned only from the pro placings before that month and gave odds for every IFBB Pro show in it. The settings were chosen on 2024, so the 2025 score was never used to pick them.
| 2025, 248 divisions, 3,651 athletes | Model | Everyone equal |
|---|---|---|
| The favourite won | 48% | 10% |
| Winner log loss (lower is better) | 1.59 | 2.51 |
| Podium Brier score (lower is better) | 0.094 | 0.141 |
And the odds mean what they say. Every podium chance the model gave in 2025, grouped, against how often it came true:
| Podium chance given | Came true | Athletes |
|---|---|---|
| 3% | 4% | 2,062 |
| 14% | 14% | 446 |
| 25% | 27% | 285 |
| 34% | 33% | 163 |
| 45% | 47% | 153 |
| 55% | 46% | 120 |
| 65% | 72% | 93 |
| 75% | 67% | 92 |
| 85% | 76% | 68 |
| 98% | 96% | 169 |
The test runs again every week. If a new test does not pass, every podium chance comes off the site until one does.
Where to find it
On the page of every IFBB Pro show of 2026 that is over, in the field table, next to the Iron Score: the column Record’s podium chance. Most shows do not publish their line-up in advance, so these odds are worked out after the show — with exactly the procedure we tested: only the pro placings from before the month of the show go in, nothing from the show itself or after it. When a show does publish its field ahead of time, as the Olympia does, the odds go up before the show and are never changed afterwards.
After each women’s pro show there is also a fan poll: did the judges get it right? Your verdict next to the judges’ result, with links to the show and to each athlete’s record.
